III. Community Demographics and Economic Profile

Population Trends

The population of California on January 1, 1996, was estimated to be 32,223,000. During the period of 1990-1995, the state growth rate declined each year, going from 2.07% in 1990-91, to 2.04%, 1.05% and finally 0.86% in 1994-1995.

Table 3.1: Population Distribution

Source: U.S. Census and CA Department of Finance, 1995 Zip Code Imperial County 1990 Imperial County 1995 Change from 1990 to 1995 92227 20,467 25,615 20.1% 92231 23,066 28,732 19.7% 92233 4,951 6,171 19.8% 92243 39,214 50,292 22.0% 92274 2,585 2,578 -0.3% 92281 1,939 2,405 19.4% 92283 3,615 3,984 9.3% Total Population 110,445 137,746 19.8%

In contrast, the population of Imperial County is rapidly growing. In 1990, the population in Imperial was 109,305. By 1996, the population was estimated at 141,200, a 27.4% increase. Table 3.1 illustrates this growth by ZIP code. The rate of population growth has been consistent across county ZIP codes (Exhibit 3.1). Of this population increase, natural increase (births minus deaths) added 40% of increase and net migration added an estimated 60% of the increase.¹ These rates contrast with California as a whole where 90% of the population increase during the first half of the 1990's was attributed to natural increase and only 10% to net migration. (Note: during this period, California experienced an unusual pattern of out-migration attributed largely to the economic recession of the time.²) Imperial County is expected to continue to grow rapidly. Interim county projections estimate that the population in Imperial will have grown to 152,300 by 2000, 185,200 by 2010 and 222,600 by 2020.³

U.C. Davis Medical Center, Department of Family Medicine

Exhibit 3.1: Population Distribution

The age distribution of the entire population in Imperial County is displayed in Exhibit 3.2. Of significance is the fact that overall, the age structure of Imperial County is slightly younger than California as a whole. In addition, the percentage of the population over the age of 65 is 10.4% in Imperial compared with 12.3% for California. The Sex and Age Distribution of the County is displayed in Exhibit 3.3 and is unremarkable with 49.2% of the population consisting of males and 50.8% females.

Source: U.S. Census, 1990

Exhibit 3.2: Age Distribution

Source: U.S. Census, 1990

Exhibit 3.3: Sex & Age Distribution

The ethnic/racial diversity of Imperial County differs significantly from the State of California, as shown in Exhibit 3.4. In 1995, 69.4% of the population was of Hispanic background, 25.3% were non-Hispanic Whites, 2.8% were African-American and 2.6% Other. In contrast, the composition for California in 1995 was 53.6% non-Hispanic Whites, 28.4% Hispanics, 7.0% African Americans, 10.4% Asian/Pacific Islander, and .6% Native American. The most striking aspect of the ethnic composition in Imperial is the high percentage of population of Hispanic background. Not only does this population group represent a higher percentage of Hispanics than is found in California as a whole, but it also significantly exceeds the percentage compared to any other single county in California. In neighboring counties, San Diego has 23% Hispanics, Riverside has 32.5% and Los Angeles has 42%. In addition, the Hispanic population is growing at a faster pace than the rest of the population in Imperial. Between 1990-1995, Hispanics accounted for 83% of the population increase.

Source: CA Department of Finance, Race/Ethnic Estimates of Counties, 1995

Exhibit 3.4: Population by Ethnicity/Race

To further define the population in Imperial County, the age and sex distribution by race/ethnicity was analyzed. When comparing the Hispanic population with the Non-Hispanic population (Non-Hispanic Whites, African Americans and Others), two strikingly different age structures were identified. (Exhibits S3.3.1-S3.3.2) The Non-Hispanic population demonstrates a population pyramid that is characterized by a lower birth rate, "baby boom" bulge and a growing older population. In contrast, in the Imperial County Hispanic population pyramid the largest age cohort is that of young children, and gradually declining with age. Of note in both pyramids, is the unexpected jump in the number of males in the age brackets of 20-35 years. A possible explanation for this could be the fact that there are two men’s maximum security prisons located in Imperial County. Because these prisons do not have specific ZIP codes assigned to them, it is not possible to definitively identify the impact on the county’s population statistics.

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